What have the OKC Thunder learned from this playoff run?
A look at what OKC can take away from their six-game loss to Dallas — and how they might move forward.
This season was all about fact-finding for the OKC Thunder. They’re exceptionally young and untested, and their funky offensive style hadn’t been exposed to the playoffs.
GM Sam Presti, flush with draft assets, made clear that they would be patient — waiting to figure out what the team would find out about themselves in the postseason before making a dramatic move.
Well, the playoffs are over. They swept the New Orleans Pelicans (without Zion Williamson) in the first round, then lost in a tight six-game series to the Dallas Mavericks. They lost Game 6 on a last-second foul of PJ Washington on a three-point shot.
The biggest, overarching takeaway is that they did not look overmatched or unprepared. The Mavs have elite top-end talent and a newly-assembled cast of defensive-minded role players. It’s probably a better Mavs squad than the one that made the 2022 conference finals (beating the 64-win Suns on the way). They’re not your typical five-seed. The Thunder stepped up in big moments and nearly sent the series to a Game 7 in OKC. Sometimes you lose to good teams.
Now the real test for Presti starts. OKC has learned a lot about themselves, and this offseason is an opportunity to take big steps forward. This team is built to win. There’s no time to waste.
There will be time in the future to discuss specific moves. For now, let’s focus on what this playoff series taught us about the Thunder.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is ready for this
The whole concept of the team is that Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player, the elite, MVP-level shotmaker. He looked ready for the moment in every way.
He kept them alive with a barrage of midrangers in Game 4, when they were down 2-1 and trailed late. He shot better than 50 percent from the field in each of the final three games of the series — on high-volume, tough shot diets. His herky-jerky style maintained its effectiveness, even against a Dallas defense that sold out to cramp his space.
He never veered from his style of play. Gilgeous-Alexander is a paradox in that he runs a lot of isolations, but he never truly dominates the ball. He gets off it early and empowers his teammates to drive and kick with an advantage. He trusts that his teammates will make good decisions, and that the ball might find its way back to him. He also sets screens and spaces the floor for co-star Jalen Williams, even in big moments.
The trust he has in his teammates has always been evident, and that did not go away in this series.
OKC’s drives — and a possible flaw of their style
With the Mavs unleashing complicated schemes, OKC’s drive and kick operation looked more flustered than usual. They missed a lot of threes — many of which were well-contested, or near the end of the shot clock — and sometimes passed up good looks without anything better on the horizon.
Getting to the rim was a constant struggle, the result of constant gap help and the frequent zoning up of centers Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford — who would linger in the paint for long stretches.
There were times late in games that you wanted Gilgeous-Alexander to just do it himself, rather than hitting the first outlet pass when help came — even if it was the right basketball decision.
It’s here that the biggest difference between Luka Doncic and Gilgeous-Alexander lies. SGA is not the passing wizard that Doncic is, but with his quick decision-making, he’s capable of creating advantages on any possession. He initiates the drive-and-kick sequences — and that’s why it’s so important that OKC always has five shooters and only play guys who can attack off the bounce.
It’s completely different for Doncic. He runs high pick-and-rolls and tears up whatever coverage you play. With traditional spacing and reads around those pick-and-rolls, he tees up open threes for role players.
There are, of course, benefits to both. Doncic gets criticized for his heliocentric style, but against tough, locked-in playoff defenses, it helps that he is able to directly create a good shot at will, whether for himself or a teammate.
OKC’s ball movement, by nature, is simply more of a lottery. The ball might end up in the hands of a role player like Cason Wallace, whom the defense would way rather force to make a play than SGA or Williams. Wallace, while an excellent rookie, might pass up a look and let the advantage die.
One of the biggest questions that Presti and coach Mark Daigneault face: can this drive-and-kick style fully thrive in the playoffs, or should they work to find other ways to generate offense? Mainly, that goes hand-in-hand with the debate over whether they should acquire a rim-running center — which, in addition to rebounding, would unlock a more traditional spread pick-and-roll.
My guess is that they double down on their style. It’s obviously proven to work in the regular season. Chet Holmgren’s pick-and-pop targets slow-footed centers and creates weaknesses for defenses.
The role players will learn from this playoff experience and grow as on-ball decision-makers and shooters. And ultimately, many of their offensive issues in this Dallas series came down to Williams and Holmgren, who did not play their best. Williams is 23 and Holmgren is 22. They have a combined three years of NBA (playing) experience. They will get better.
Rather than making a sea change in style, it makes sense to trust in the rapid improvement of young stars who already excel in this system. There is significant flexibility within that style, too — with everybody screening for everybody. Holmgren, for instance, will get better as a driver and occasional roller to the rim.
The rebounding
The Thunder are not a good rebounding team, and they were never built to be. This is an intractable weakness when your center is a skinny, perimeter-oriented rookie, you don’t have any real power forwards on the team, and your backup center is 6’9.
The trade off is small lineups that force turnovers at a league-leading rate, get out in transition, and shoot a lot of threes. The playoffs would always be the test: can a team that’s this bad at rebounding win at a high level?
I’m not sure we got a definitive “no” to that question, but there’s no doubt that the rebounding was a major weakness. In the fourth quarter of Game 6 alone, Dallas gathered six crucial offensive rebounds, including three by Lively. The Mavs rebounded 33 percent of their own misses in the series, which would’ve led the NBA in the regular season.
OKC even closed Game 6 with backup center Jaylin Williams alongside Holmgren, a rare alignment, to add size.
They have to find a way to get more rebounds. Josh Giddey turning into a borderline unplayable asset hurt a lot in this department; Giddey is a good positional rebounder, and when he got benched, he was generally replaced by smaller guys. Part of the preseason vision of the team is that Giddey could help the rebounding issue.
One of the offseason priorities has to be adding size. That brings us back to the question of whether to add a rim-running center — which would turn Holmgren into a power forward. Bringing in somebody like Jarrett Allen or Nicolas Claxton would change the entire vision of the team, eliminating five-out spacing and cramping the drive-and-kick lanes. It would stamp down their strengths.
The preferable move, I would argue, is a power forward with size who can help Holmgren on the boards. That hypothetical player — easier said than done to find this guy — would add positional size without sacrificing the style that they play. The platonic ideal here is somebody like Lauri Markkanen.
That player would replace Giddey in the starting lineup.
(Giddey and his lack of spacing and defense is not a great fit for a team with ambitions as high as they have. It’s hard to gauge his trade value after he was mostly played off the floor in the biggest games, but it would make sense for a team with a dearth of ball-handling to take a chance on him. He has value.)
OKC might have a chance to cash in some of their assets in a more aggressive move this summer. Presti, I’m sure, will comb the league. But there’s a missing piece on this team, and that guy is a power forward who can shoot and rebound.
They are close to championship contention, if they weren’t already there. The pieces around the stars looked up for the moment, including Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, and even the much-maligned Jaylin Williams — who hit some perimeter shots in that Mavs series.
Part of Presti’s vision is maintaining as much cap flexibility as possible, and using the stash of draft picks to keep a constant flow of productive players on team-friendly contracts. There’s room to improve, but despite the disappointment of a playoff loss, the vision is panning out.