The adjustments and X-Factors that will determine Thunder-Mavericks Game 5
The Thunder stole Game 4 late to tie the series. Now the series heads back to OKC for a crucial Game 5.
It’s not quite the battle of the titans that Timberwolves-Nuggets has been, but the Thunder-Mavericks series is a fierce battle of tactics and shotmaking — pitting the exceptionally young Thunder against the Mavs’ established duo.
OKC left it late in Game 4, spending much of it trailing by digits. Down 2-1 in the series, it was a huge test for the fresh-faced group. They stormed back behind an onslaught of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander midrange buckets (with the help of Dallas’s ineptitude at the free throw line).
Let’s take a look at the factors that will determine a crucial Game 5 — and the game(s) beyond that:
Dealing with Dallas’s pick and rolls
— The biggest push and pull of the series has been how the Thunder deal with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving’s pick and rolls. Dallas’s best offense has often been Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II getting behind a preoccupied big man:
For much of the series, the Thunder’s game plan has been keeping their center (Chet Holmgren or Jaylin Williams) high up in pick and rolls — hoping to contain Doncic and Irving. The bet is that OKC’s smalls will rotate frantically behind them and the Mavs’ two centers will struggle in space.
It’s been up and down — sometimes the strategy works and they get strips, blocks, and missed dunks (Lively’s had multiple), but sometimes it leads to easy floaters like above. Usually, it’s guards like Cason Wallace and Gilgeous-Alexander tasked with bodying up Gafford or Lively.
They’ve mixed in deep drop coverage, too, to prevent those rolls. But deeper drop only works if the point of attack defender sticks tightly to Doncic or Irving — and those guys are so good that even if you’re glued to them, they’ll still find a runway:
That’s at the very beginning of Game 4. Holmgren drops so that he’s attached to a rolling Gafford, denying the lob. But that means Doncic is sprinting toward the hoop. Gilgeous-Alexander has to help, and there’s the kick. PJ Washington missed that one, but he’s killed the Thunder with his corner shooting on these exact plays.
Dallas has gotten good shots against both pick and roll coverages. Credit to Jason Kidd for finding the set that is most effective against both: double-drag pick and rolls, with two screeners.
Two guys screen for Irving. First it’s Josh Giddey’s man, targeting OKC’s weakest defender, and then it’s Gafford, who rolls hard to the rim just as Holmgren steps toward Irving.
The point is forcing Jalen Williams (J-Dub), often Irving’s primary defender, to navigate two screens. They create that runway, opening up everything else. The Mavs continued to run it when Giddey wasn’t in the game, forcing J-Dub, Lu Dort, and Wallace away from Doncic and Irving.
OKC would prefer to help heavily from the other side of the court to take away those rolls. They started the series aggressively funneling shots toward the Mavs’ role players. But everybody has made them pay for that, especially the red-hot Washington, and Kidd has been playing smaller, stretchier lineups — using Tim Hardaway Jr. in the closing lineup. There’s nowhere to help from.
The Thunder will probably continue to mix coverages to keep them off balance. It will be interesting to see how aggressive they will be helping off the role players.
Kyrie’s performance
— It should be noted how excellent Irving has been in this series, despite his meager scoring totals. He’s making the right play every time with the ball, hitting rollers immediately once they come open and threading brilliant lob passes. The threat of his pull-up jumper opens everything else.
He’s been even better defensively. His ability to defend anyone unlocks those smaller lineups — allowing them to hide Hardaway. Irving is battling OKC’s stars, often guarding J-Dub and switching onto Gilgeous-Alexander, and he’s more than held up.
Irving has a really good sense for OKC’s unusual offensive rhythm. When a guard comes flying in to screen for SGA or J-Dub, Irving knows that the pop is coming and crowds the ball, deflecting the pass. His offensive skill and creativity translates to the defensive end.
And just look at this rim protection:
Irving has played extremely high level basketball and it’s a joy to watch.
A complicated Mavs defensive scheme
— Dallas has caused a lot of issues for OKC’s funky offense. The plan: switch everything no matter what and crowd the paint as much as possible.
Now, every team throughout the regular season has tried to do exactly that. What’s different? A few things:
Zoning up the centers: The whole dilemma of OKC is that Holmgren’s shooting spaces out your rim protector. Well, Dallas has decided to stick Washington on Holmgren and tell Lively and Gafford to just stand near the paint.
In this case, Gafford’s technically “guarding” Aaron Wiggins, who’s in the corner. But Gafford would stand in that spot regardless of who’s there. If Wiggins runs up to set a screen, somebody else would run with him. If they kick it to Wiggins, somebody else would go contest. Gafford would stay by the rim.
Lingering after you get switched off: This is a subtle thing, but watch what Irving does here after OKC generates a switch with Doncic guarding J-Dub:
Dort, after screening, cuts through the paint to clear out an isolation. Irving, who had been on J-Dub, lingers with an eye on the ball a couple extra seconds. The reason? OKC is most dangerous in those first seconds after a switch, because they pounce on defenders who don’t switch aggressively and aren’t immediately in a stance. So just in case Doncic gets blown by, there’s Irving — waiting.
(And once Irving clears out, notice that he goes to guard Holmgren as Lively blocks out the paint.)
Everybody is rim protecting: Irving’s help there is part of a wider team concept of selling out to protect the rim. Dallas is taking advantage of OKC’s unique spacing concepts, which often put three people on the baseline — two in the corners and one (usually a guard) in the dunker spot near the rim.
It’s translating to results. OKC is taking just 22 shots in the restricted area per game in this round, four lower than their season average and the worst of any second round team. The Thunder are shooting just 57 percent on those shots — again, far worse than any remaining playoff team.
In Game 5, OKC shot a ridiculous 6-for-17 in the restricted area. It’s pretty remarkable that they won despite that.
OKC’s counters
— Gilgeous-Alexander’s brilliance was the main reason that the Thunder pulled off that fourth quarter comeback. SGA realized that he wasn’t going to be able to get to the rim. So he just decided to shoot midrange shots and attack whoever was on him.
And, well, it worked. SGA shot 10-for-14 on midrange shots, per NBA.com. None of his 14 field goals came at the rim or from three. It’s awesome basketball to watch.
Dallas will have to decide whether they have to do more to limit SGA’s midrange dominance, or whether they can trust the math and keep doing what they’re doing. I’d bet on the latter.
— Coach Mark Daigneault, one of the league’s most creative offensive coaches, has multiple pet actions that he goes to often, and that’s what he relied on down the stretch. One in particular is Spain, or a stack pick and roll, which they run in a slightly unique way:
Notice how Holmgren starts in the paint and then flares out as SGA runs a pick and roll. Because he started the action near the rim, rather than on the wing or as a screen-setter, he forced Lively to actually guard him. So once he runs out to the wing, Lively has to go with him, pulling him from the paint.
That action, which they run with a variety of guys in Holmgren’s spot, complicates Dallas’s help. It pulls somebody who had originally been a helper out to the perimeter and forces the guys in the immediate pick and roll action to defend by themselves — two on two.
Isaiah Joe, who started the second half in place of the floundering Giddey, is an excellent screen setter who adds juice and movement shooting to those actions.
— The Mavs pre-switch to keep their bigs out of pick and rolls and in the paint instead — meaning Gafford and Lively will point at someone else to go up to the ball if the guy they’re “guarding” goes to set a screen. A common counter is setting stagger screens, forcing the big to come up.
We haven’t seen that very often from the Thunder. They can make more of an effort to drag Gafford and Lively up to the screens, or else force Dallas to make quick decisions to prevent it.
— Perhaps the biggest overall task for OKC’s offense is finding a way to generate advantages directly from switches — enough to get to the rim. They’ve attacked Doncic constantly, hoping to tire him out and capitalize on his weak knee, but Doncic is holding up well. OKC has actually gotten a little stalled out by their focus on attacking Doncic.
They need to generate the sort of movement and closeouts that powered their offense all season. They didn’t get the necessary production from the role guys in the last game, and part of the reason is that they weren’t setting up quality catch-and-shoot looks at the same rate.
The Giddey problem
— I won’t dwell on it, but it’s becoming really dicey to play Giddey any minutes at all. His lack of a shooting threat makes that rim-focused Dallas scheme a whole lot easier to execute. Running offense through Giddey, rather than SGA or JDub, is bordering on a waste of time. He’s having a hard time making an impact — and he’s the worst defender on the team.
Giddey does good things, including pushing the pace and finding cutters. OKC sometimes moves the ball better when he’s in the game. But Daigneault can’t waste time putting Wiggins, Joe, or Cason Wallace out there.
Some other little things to watch
J-Dub and Doncic both shot poorly in Game 4. And as much as I praised Irving earlier, the Mavs obviously have a better chance of winning when he scores more than nine points. All three will have to make shots.
Doncic likes posting up Dort on an empty side of the court, using his size to bully him. But OKC has lately figured out an effective strategy against that. They’ll have Holmgren inch over from underneath the rim, doubling from below and zoning up the other players. J-Dub intercepted a skip pass from Doncic in the fourth quarter.
The Mavs ran their own version of Spain pick and roll a few times in Game 4, and Holmgren was prepared for it. He fought through Hardaway’s back-screens and effectively blew it up a couple times — clearly reading that it was coming and calling it out.
Dallas is getting good offense when Irving runs an “angle” pick and roll — meaning it starts from near the sideline on a wing. OKC has to find a way to help on the roller from the low man and rotate from there.
OKC again briefly played Jaylin Williams (J-Will) and Holmgren together. The two-big alignment is a way of adding extra paint protection, keeping a big as the low man when Gafford or Lively gets behind. It helps defensively, but it’s less explosive offensively.
Wallace can guard Irving. He closed Game 4, and I bet he plays a lot in Game 5.