Four years ago, it looked like Golden State and Boston would meet in the NBA Finals. The Celtics went up 3-2 in the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals with the same top four players as they have today, preparing to face the mighty Warriors. The difference? Jayson Tatum was a rookie. Jaylen Brown was in his second season. They lost to two straight LeBron explosions.
Another conference finals loss later, and the Celtics are well-prepared for this moment. They reacquired Al Horford to bring the core back together, and grew along the edges with players like Robert Williams III, Grant Williams, and midseason pickup Derrick White. They slipped past Miami to create their long-awaited chance at the Warriors in a Finals.
These are the tried and true Warriors. There’s no more Kevin Durant to make every series (except against the 2018 Rockets) feel like an inevitability.
Let’s take a look at a couple of keys to the series before it kicks off with Game 1 tonight:
The Warriors’ defense against Tatum
As I wrote before the Celtics-Heat Game 7, Miami did a great job of double-teaming Tatum to get him off the ball and force turnovers. They did it strategically, using the player guarding Marcus Smart (a weaker shooter) to double. If Tatum got inside the arc, the Heat would make sure a help defender was stationed around the elbow, to stop Tatum from rising into a pull-up jumper.
I wonder if the Warriors will try a similar strategy. In some ways, they are a very different defense from Miami. Golden State usually plays smaller lineups and bases their scheme around perimeter defense, speedy rotations, and schematic versatility. They’re willing to concede cross-court passes to shooters, because they know they can use their speed to close-out. Draymond Green’s court coverage, rim protection, and communication is crucial to the operation.
Tatum will target Stephen Curry and, especially, Jordan Poole on switches. Curry is a feisty defender, and will not be trampled over. But Tatum has the size advantage. The Celtics will have to give Tatum better passing options when he gets doubled or sees aggressive help. Smart and Derrick White should stand in the corner, not on the wing, so that their man is farther from the action. Boston has to get looks from three (or catch and drives) for Brown or Grant Williams when Tatum is forced to give it up.
The Celtics should also mix in creative sets to get Tatum on the move. Pick-and-pops and hand-offs are good options. Maybe we’ll see more of the Tatum-Brown pick-and-roll. There are ways to take advantage of small defenders that isn’t simply attacking them in isolation. Put them in positions where they have to protect the rim or make long close-outs.
The Celtics’ small lineups
Robert Williams III remains hampered by a knee injury, and his minutes have rapidly decreased as a result. He could survive for some minutes against the Heat, but he didn’t have to cover nearly as much ground against paint-bound players like Bam Adebayo. The Warriors are a whole different animal. They will force him to run all over the place.
That means Al Horford will play a big portion of the game at center. I bet that when Horford rests, we will see true small lineups, with Grant Williams at the five. The Warriors after all are the kings of small-ball, so the Celtics will have to match them at some point.
Horford will be tested on the perimeter. He has been great at hanging around out there throughout these playoffs. He’ll have to constantly be ready to step out to the level of a screen to deny three-pointers to Curry, Poole, and Klay Thompson. The same goes for Grant Williams. He could get time guarding Green, which is a big job. Guarding Green means you will have to deal with the Curry-Green pick-and-roll dance, and make a lot of quick defensive decisions.
Smart will of course start on Curry. Brown and White will chase Thompson and Poole around. Those chases around the perimeter will be some of the most interesting subplots of the series. I wonder who will get the initial chance on Draymond. There is something to be said for putting a mobile, switchable guard on him.
Prediction
My biggest question is whether the Celtics can score enough offensively. I think they have what it takes to defend Golden State, but the Warriors will always find a way to score. Warriors in 7.