What to watch for in the Cavs-Magic series
The Cavs-Magic series has big stakes. Let's take a look at what could determine the series.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are facing questions about the long-term viability of their oddly-constructed team. Donovan Mitchell’s free agency looms in 2025. They closed the regular season poorly, and got humiliated in last year’s first round by the Knicks. A first round loss means big changes could be coming.
More than anything, however, this series is a chance for the Orlando Magic to learn about their young and hungry team and evaluate what they need to improve.
These are two good defensive teams who have offensive questions. It’s going to be a slugfest.
Let’s take a look at some series pivot points.
The Cavs’ Twin Towers
I’m fascinated by what appetite coach JB Bickerstaff (who’s under immense pressure himself) has for the double-big lineup with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Presumably, the two will start throughout the series. But how much will the two actually play together? Bickerstaff has staggered the two heavily — rarely keeping them both out there at the same time if at all possible.
When they’re on the court together, the Cavs have inevitable spacing concerns. They have a variety of ways to overcome that, including nifty interior passing and drifting Mobley out to the corner, where he sometimes launches catch-and-shoot threes.
The Magic are not a team that plays aggressive pick-and-roll coverages a ton — according to Synergy tracking — but I bet we see that more often, especially when Mitchell runs pick-and-rolls. Allen and Mobley will have to make plays out of the short roll.
We know Allen can hit floaters and push shots consistently. Mobley is more of a question mark in that department, a weakness that the Knicks punished last season.
Taking away Mitchell and Darius Garland
At the top of Orlando’s game-plan will be taking away Mitchell, a deadly pull-up shooter who can score at three levels. Jalen Suggs, who I had as an All-Defense player this season, will get that assignment — denying Mitchell the ball and chasing him through screens.
Garland has been inconsistent at times this season, but the Cavs need his secondary scoring. I wonder if Orlando will try to make him a pull-up jump shooter. They could play a deeper drop coverage on Garland’s pick-and-rolls, trusting their guards to get over screens, in order to shut off Garland’s playmaking.
It’s been a challenge, but Mitchell and Garland have to enhance each other in some way. Will the two set screens for each other on or off the ball? At the very least, having Garland screen for Mitchell could serve to extract Suggs from him.
The Orlando cutting offense
Both of these teams score a lot on cuts — more than almost any team in the NBA. That’s a good thing, of course, but it speaks to the small half-court margins that they operate in.
Orlando will start a lot of possessions by having Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero screen for each other, trying to free one of them on a cut to the rim. If the defense takes that away, Banchero will often try to seal somebody in the post, clearing out one side of the floor. Mobley will have that matchup a lot.
Banchero is more or less Orlando’s point guard. He’ll run a lot of pick-and-rolls with Wendell Carter Jr., drawing switches with Jarrett Allen. Wagner will cut around that.
The Magic’s bench
Orlando has dominated reserve minutes this season. Their best three bench players — Cole Anthony, Jonathan Isaac, and Moritz Wagner — have a plus-12 net rating over 500 minutes together. Anthony provides a necessary dose of shot creation at the guard spot, and Mo Wagner is a skilled big who’s always a threat to score in pick-and-rolls.
Isaac is dominant defensively, the kind of weapon that could shift the series. With his history of injuries, he rarely played more than 25 minutes in regular season games, but now’s the time to extend his workload. He’ll likely get plenty of minutes with the starters.
They could put him on Mobley and let him roam. They could put him on Allen and insert him directly into every play. Or they could throw him at Mitchell if he gets hot.
It will be interesting to see how coach Jamahl Mosley manages his bench. Can the veteran shooter Joe Ingles stay on the court defensively? Will Markelle Fultz make an appearance?
Other notes
The Cavs’ Dean Wade is likely out for Game 1, and could miss more time. If he’s able to play at some point, he’d be an asset guarding Banchero. Without him, the Cavs may have to prioritize the double-big lineups to keep Mobley on Banchero, or else stick the smaller, but stout, Isaac Okoro on him.
Max Strus provides way more spacing in the starting lineup than Cleveland had in last year’s playoffs. They should work to get him involved as a movement shooter.
Both teams will likely struggle to score for stretches. That will put even more pressure on the stars — Mitchell and Banchero — to produce.
Isaac is an X-Factor. He changes games defensively and has hit enough threes lately (in addition to flying in for dunks and offensive rebounds) to hang in offensively. In this kind of series, he’s a huge asset.
Cleveland should win on paper. They have more talent, and they have the best player in Mitchell. But something about this Orlando team works, and adds up to more than the sum of its parts. I’m picking Magic in 7.