What to expect in Game 5 of the NBA Finals
This seres could go either way. Here are some things to watch.
This NBA Finals is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in recent memory, probably since 2016. The Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors are tied 2-2 heading back to San Francisco. Here’s what I’ll be watching in Monday’s Game 5:
— The Warriors could have lost Game 4, and only survived because Stephen Curry had an incredible performance, one of the best of his storied career. He finished with 43 points on 14-26 from the field, including 7-14 from three.
Curry had to work for those points. With Marcus Smart and Derrick White chasing him, most of Curry’s shots were tightly contested. The big men, Al Horford and Robert Williams III, were much better in Game 4 about stepping up to prevent easy walk-up threes. Curry countered by hitting even deeper threes.
Finding more production from other scorers, mainly Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole will be important. Both Thompson and Poole were good, not great in Game 4. Getting a little bit of playmaking from Poole would help take the load off Curry.
Andrew Wiggins, who had 17 points and 16 rebounds in Game 4, has been great. He is the Warriors’ second-best player right now. He can create his own shot, and has been smart about finding chances to score, getting out in transition and crashing the offensive boards.
The Draymond Green problem hasn’t gone away. Green struggled again in Game 4, to the point that Steve Kerr benched him for a stretch in the fourth quarter. Kerr went offense-defense with Green and Poole for the last three minutes of the game, and it worked. Until Green figures out a way to contribute on offense, it will probably have to be like that in the biggest moments.
There were some very promising signs for the Warriors late in the game. Green, in for a critical offensive possession, looked vintage. He threw a great kickout pass to Wiggins and gathered an offensive rebound. Then he received a pass from Curry after a double-team and found Kevon Looney at the rim for a layup. It’s this kind of activity that can make Green an offensive asset instead of a liability.
He’ll have to stop passing up easy looks around the rim, though. He did that a couple of times in the last game, while missing most of the shots that he actually took.
— Jayson Tatum is struggling to finish at the rim. That’s why he’s struggled so much with his efficiency this series. The Warriors are doing a good job of forcing him to drive to his weaker left, which is also affected by the injury he suffered against the Heat.
The Celtics have to focus on generating switches and letting Tatum attack Curry and Poole, instead of attacking Wiggins every time. They can do that in creative ways, including by having Tatum seal a weaker defender on a screen and getting into the post. They can also work harder to create off-ball handoffs and pindown screens. The latter has been particularly effective, as Wiggins will sometimes go under, which gives Tatum a look for three.
— Jaylen Brown has been getting tough buckets against Green. That will be hard to sustain. But the penetration that he has been able to generate looks more sustainable, and it will continue to be a good source of offense for the Celtics. It’s important that he and Tatum are able to get deep enough into the paint to draw help, and then are able to make on-time passes. They both have a tendency to be a little bit out of control.
— Tatum was fantastic on defense in Game 4. He had some big possessions in which he guarded Curry and made things very difficult.
Thompson also had his best defensive game of the series. He’s nowhere near Tatum’s level, but Thompson had some important stops on Brown late in the game. The Warriors are short on wing defenders beyond Wiggins and Green, so he’ll have to continue that level. (Gary Payton II has only played around 10 minutes in each of the past two games.)
— The Warriors’ new starting lineup of Otto Porter Jr. in place of Looney didn’t work. Porter only played 14 minutes in the game, while the always-reliable Looney played 28. I’m not sure why Kerr wouldn’t go back to the original starters in Game 5.
— The Celtics waste too many possessions with Marcus Smart or Derrick White attacking aimlessly. White has shot well from three, but he’s struggled inside the arc and should not be doing nearly as much as he has been off the dribble.
With that said, Smart has been very, very good in the past two games, and has come up with some important points. He had 18 points and five assists in Game 4.
— There are always adjustments. For the Celtics, I think they will have to refocus on getting Tatum and Brown attacking switches and organizing the offense. They have been pretty good offensively overall, and have suffered from turnovers, poor shot selection from White and Smart, and Tatum’s inefficiency. Their process has been good.
The Warriors’ half-court offense has been locked up by the Celtics. They are surviving on transition offense and Curry heroics. One thing they can look to do on offense is purposefully direct their off-ball movement so that Green’s defender is forced to track a shooter like Thompson or Poole. That could give the main action on the other side, such as a Curry pick and roll, more room to operate.
These are teams that know each other plays, and they know the margins will be tight. It will be an exciting Game 5.