What happened to small ball?

Teams are going bigger and bigger, abandoning what once looked like an irreversible trend toward small ball.

Small ball defined the NBA in the late 2010s. Teams prioritized pace and space over size, especially late in big games. In the era of three-point shooting, it looked like a permanent trend. The success of the Warriors and Rockets, who relied on versatile, switchable defenders, solidified it.

But lately, big lineups are en vogue again. Spacing is still at a premium, but true power forwards have returned — if they ever went away. The Nuggets, who bulldozed to a championship, are only part of a wider trend.

So, what’s happening? I’d like to think through a few different reasons. First, we have to figure out where it came from.

What does small ball mean, really?

Originally, small ball meant benching traditional power forwards who didn’t space the floor. Gradually it meant stacking the court with defenders who switch across multiple positions and space the floor on offense. It served to maximize superstars who thrived in the open floor, like Stephen Curry, LeBron James, and James Harden.

The Warriors started Draymond Green at center in the 2015 Finals. The 2018 Rockets, whose switch-everything defense gave Golden State fits in the conference finals, are a prominent example. Later, teams such as the 2021 Clippers and 2022 Mavericks found playoff success by using five-out lineups.

Small ball was a trend because teams got in the habit of maximizing spacing and versatility late in playoff games. The Bucks in 2021, for instance, used Giannis Antetokounmpo at center to great effect in their championship run. The 2020 Lakers started Alex Caruso in Game 6 of the Finals over Dwight Howard. The Celtics throughout the Tatum-Brown era have weaponized fierce switching defenses.

Five-out lineups minimized the impact of rim protectors like Rudy Gobert in the playoffs and unlocked superstars in a spaced floor.

Is it going away?

Those late-game choices depend on the situation. But take a glance around the landscape of the NBA this season and you’ll see a lot of jumbo lineups. The Timberwolves are the most obvious example. The Cavaliers have a Twin Towers set-up. The Spurs are playing Victor Wembanyama at the four. The Pelicans start Zion Williamson next to Jonas Valanciunas. The Grizzlies start Jaren Jackson Jr. at the four.

How many teams out there consistently go with five-out, switchable lineups? The Mavericks drafted rim-running center Derek Lively III and now start him, to rave reviews. The Clippers, who toyed with PJ Tucker at the five lineups after they traded for Harden, signed Daniel Theis to add center depth. The Thunder have less use for five-out lineups now that they have Chet Holmgren.

The Celtics are a case study. They have been Team Spacing for years — intent on getting shooters and launching threes. This offseason, they added Kristaps Porzingis to insert a new offensive element into a stagnant offense: post and interior scoring. Of course, Porzingis doesn’t sacrifice shooting. But he changes the shape of the offense.

There doesn’t seem to be any major contenders who use small-ball heavily as part of their closing lineups. The Warriors, an important pioneer, might be the only example, led by Green. The Suns could turn to it if Jusuf Nurkic underperforms or gets hurt. The Kings may be the smallest contender outside of Golden State, and they’re led by a bruising handoff hub in Domantas Sabonis.

What’s behind this?

I have a few theories.

There are more huge superstars

There are simply more unicorns — large humans who are a walking mismatch by virtue of their size and skill. Teams have to respond and find ways to guard them. Those unicorns are capable of playing next to other players with size and causing further mismatches.

You can’t rely too much on threes

The variance of three-point shooting is unavoidable. Five-out lineups sometimes struggle to put pressure on the rim, relying too much on three-pointers. That’s a dangerous game. The 2018 Rockets infamously missed 27 straight in the biggest game of their season.

The Mavericks are another example. They’ve seemed to realize that it’s important to balance their heavy diet of three-pointers generated by Luka Doncic with shots at the rim. They’re less susceptible to three-point cold spells.

The pick and roll is important

Centers who can screen-and-roll centralize the offense around their gravity. They provide structure and make it difficult for opponents to switch. Running pick-and-roll with a big guy is a good way to avoid devolving into one-on-one offense.

Look at last year’s Toronto Raptors. They spent most of the year built around a collection of similarly-sized wings, without a traditional center, but were unwatchable on offense. Despite their theoretical spacing, they developed no coherent identity and relied on individual creation.

At the trade deadline, they acquired Jakob Poeltl — a center known for his defense, rim-running, and awful free throw shooting. Their offense noticeably improved with Poeltl in the mix. It had direction and purpose. They played through Poeltl as a hand-off hub and decision-maker.

Offensive rebounding

Teams are getting more offensive rebounds now. The median offensive rebound rate league-wide is up to 27 percent, per Cleaning the Glass, a number that has steadily increased after plummeting in the late 2010s. (Here’s a great deep dive from January courtesy of The Score that investigates this trend.)

In short: Extra possessions are valuable and teams are realizing that crashing the offensive glass is worth it. The aforementioned Raptors and the Memphis Grizzlies, led by Steven Adams, have used offensive rebounding to their advantage in recent years.

Secondary rim protection

Preventing teams from scoring at the rim remains one of the most valuable skills in basketball. Teams with another big man add extra support at the rim, which is important when teams make an effort to pull the primary center toward the perimeter. Cleveland with Mobley and Memphis with Jackson are prime examples.

Plus, arguably the best way to defend Jokic and Joel Embiid is with a second shot-blocker lurking in the paint. The Celtics used Robert Williams III this way on Embiid to great effect in Games 6 and 7 of the playoffs.

What does this mean?

For one, we’re seeing funky matchups around the NBA on a night-to-night basis. The list of players that Karl-Anthony Towns has guarded as a primary defender is not what anyone could have expected three years ago. Against Phoenix the other night, Towns matched up with Eric Gordon(!).

I’m curious to see if the post-up becomes more trendy again. That hasn’t happened yet — the average post-up league-wide is identical so far this year to 2020-21 — but Aaron Gordon showed in the playoffs how valuable it can be when bigger players exploit mismatches. Remember when the Heat tried guarding him with Caleb Martin in the Finals? Didn’t work!

While the traditional slowed-down, back-to-the-basket play probably won’t come back other than for the aliens (Jokic and Embiid), we could see teams try to punish mismatches and generate double-teams. Those post touches, as the Warriors have shown for years, allow for productive off-ball movement and screening actions.

The landscape of contenders, particularly the presence of Jokic, seems to indicate that there won’t be the same downsizing in the playoffs as in years past. Remember when Memphis benched Adams in their first round series against the Wolves in 2022, fearing Towns’s pick-and-pops? I’m not sure we’ll see the same sorts of decisions.

Minnesota’s entire team is built on being huge. The Lakers have Anthony Davis and LeBron James, both of whom have leaned hard on bully ball. In the East, there’s Embiid. It’s hard to downsize against those matchups.

Players who can credibly guard bigger players while also spacing the floor and playing with skill are only growing more valuable. They’ll be a bidding war for Alex Caruso at the deadline. Teams will surely try to call Brooklyn about Dorian Finney-Smith.

We’ll see as the season goes on whether somebody will go the opposite direction.