What happened to Julius Randle?
The Knicks' star has struggled mightily this season. Plus: Trade deadline updates.
The New York Knicks have had plenty of problems this season. Their starting lineup, featuring guards Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier, has been completely ineffective all season. Their defense fell from fourth to 13th, a deadly drop when the offense has remained well below league average. The Knicks are 24-29, sitting 12th in the Eastern Conference with an uphill battle to make the bottom end of the play-in tournament.
Last year, they surprised everyone and finished fourth. The biggest difference between these two seasons is the performance of Julius Randle, whose emergence was the biggest reason for the Knicks’ rise in 2020-21. Randle was a second-team All-NBA player last year, a sharpshooting bowling ball with great passing touch.
It has not gone well for Randle this season. His points-per-game average has dropped from 24.1 to 18.7. He’s shooting 30 percent from three after shooting 41 percent last year. His shooting percentage from the midrange plummeted from 41 percent (not great to begin with) to a terrible 33 percent. His assists dropped and his turnovers are up. His effort on defense has declined. He sometimes looks checked out, lacking confidence and urgency.
The Knicks bet big on Randle, signing him to a huge contract extension that will likely keep him in New York through 2026. The difficult realization: this year’s version of Randle is more in line with his career performance.
Randle shot 27 percent from three in 2019-20, his first year with the Knicks. He never shot from the midrange until last year. For years, he had a reputation as a shoot-first, blinders-on scorer; he had a tendency to miss available passes and instead take difficult shots. His improvement in 2020-21 was a product of significantly improved shooting and passing.
He’s still passing the ball well this year, averaging five assists per game. But he no longer has any gravity. Defenses don’t guard him on the perimeter. It gets a lot harder to be an effective lead ball-handler when you’re considered a non-shooter.
He’s simply struggled to add anything to his arsenal to make up for his shooting regression. He takes difficult isolation jumpers:
He always goes left, and tries to spin into a look at the rim or a pass. Defenses know it’s coming. NBA stars have to constantly update their game to play on defense’s expectations.
We saw Pascal Siakam learn that last season, when he declined significantly after a second-team All-NBA campaign. He’s rebounded well this year. We’ll see if Randle has a similar turnaround in him.
NBA trade deadline updates and musings
The Cavaliers traded for Caris LeVert from the Pacers in exchange for Ricky Rubio’s expiring contract, a lottery-protected 2022 first round pick, and two second-round picks. The Cavs get the ball-handler they wanted. LeVert is a pure scorer with size who will fit next to Darius Garland in Cleveland’s backcourt. That’s good value for the Pacers, too, who are in the process of selling house at the deadline.
Per ESPN, the latest update on the James Harden saga is that the Nets have flatly rejected Sixers offers for the disgruntled superstar. That does not mean, though, that a deal before Feb. 10 is out of the question, per Adrian Wojnarowski.
The Nets have lost eight straight games. They have a bunch of home games coming up, where they will not have Kyrie Irving. The play-in tournament is a significant possibility for this team. Simply a disaster.
The Sacramento Kings are expected to be one of the most active teams, as they’re on the outskirts of the play-in tournament, but no one seems to have any clue what their plan is. De’Aaron Fox likely doesn’t have the sort of value that would entice a trade. Harrison Barnes would help a contender right now. Action Network reported that the Kings and Trail Blazers have discussed a Marvin Bagley III deal.
Action Network also reported that the Celtics want to save on the luxury tax, and have offers on the table for Dennis Schroder from the Bucks and Bulls. Schroder would make a lot of sense for both teams.
The Trail Blazers and Pacers have big assets. It’s anyone’s guess as to how many of CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Domantas Sabonis, and Myles Turner will be dealt. There’s also Eric Bledsoe and Justin Holiday who could be traded. Portland and Indiana could have a big impact on this year’s playoff race, depending on what they do.
Dallas is a fascinating team. They want to win and improve, but who can they really trade? Jalen Brunson’s expiring contract is considered their clearest asset, but Brunson is crucial for them as a secondary ball-handler. They’d like to aim high (John Collins? Pascal Siakam?) but they simply do not have the assets for that. We’ll see what happens.