The last time the NBA Finals went to a Game 7 was in 2016, Warriors-Cavaliers. That, of course, is one of the most famous games in sports history, for its late game heroics and its tense, almost visceral atmosphere. Legacies were on the line and you could feel the tension.
A Game 7 in the NBA Finals is the kind of game that sticks in the collective consciousness. The resumé of every player that touches the floor will be bolstered or, possibly, diminished based on their performance. Leashes will be short; getting minutes in a game like this is a true honor. For the stars, all of that is ratcheted up a level. A big performance or clutch moment is legitimately career-defining.
Game 7s of the past all have indelible moments that come up first when you think of the series and the championship winners. 2016 is special because there are so many. The Block, The Shot, and The Stop are essentially NBA canon by now.
In 2013, Shane Battier knocked down six-of-eight threes for the Miami Heat in Game 7 against San Antonio. The possession before a LeBron James pull-up dagger, Tim Duncan missed a bunny that would’ve tied the game and famously slapped the floor in frustration.
You can go back through NBA history. The Knicks’ John Starks went 2-for-18 in Game 7 of the 1994 Finals against Houston. James Worthy scored 36 points in 1988 against Detroit. These are generation-defining performances, good or bad. And these opportunities are scarce. Sunday will be only the eighth Finals Game 7 in the NBA since 1980.
Up until now, the OKC Thunder and Indiana Pacers have produced an instant classic of a series, with mostly tight, well-played games. Game 7 looms above all of it. Everything hinges on this game.
The good bet here is that this game will be close. We know OKC has the ability to run teams out of the gym, especially at home, and it’s hard to forget their Game 7 demolition of the Denver Nuggets in the second round — a series that looked remarkably similar to this one. But look at the history of Finals Game 7s since 1980. Every single one finished within single digits.
That’s the nature of these games. The players are well aware of all the legacy talk and the history. They know everybody’s watching. We can get nervy rock fights — role players bobbling the ball, stars pressing a little too much. No Finals Game 7 has seen a team score more than 95 points since 1988.
You see the same dynamic in other sports. In soccer, tournament knockout games are often characterized by cagey, risk-averse play. Nobody wants to make the decisive mistake. Hockey Game 7s are tight-checking, low-scoring affairs with few penalties and few stoppages.
If you’re looking for the highest quality basketball, watch Game 4 or Game 5. That’s been the case in these Finals and many other series in the past. But if you’re looking for knee-buckling drama, the kind that makes even a neutral fan watch with an elevated heart rate, watch Game 7.
Both teams have gone back and forth with adjustments for six games already. They know each other’s tendencies. Players call out the other team’s designed set immediately — you can see them tell their teammates. (Watch Alex Caruso for this purpose.)
There are Xs and Os to watch, mini-adjustments that could swing the whole game. Oklahoma City is on the back foot, having been thoroughly blown out in Game 6, and will have to adjust to changes Indiana made defensively. Some tactical thoughts are below.
But more than anything, this game will about unlikely heroes and late-game execution. Both teams are more than capable. The trophy will be in the building and the fans will be frenzied, but tense. This is as good as it gets.
Some Xs and Os to keep an eye on
Indiana didn’t totally revamp their defensive strategy on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Game 6, but they made some critical adjustments. They mixed in more double-teams. Andrew Nembhard trailed SGA and contested shots even after getting screened. The overall point is timely help that takes away SGA’s favorite spots on the floor:
That steal was part of the epic “TJ McConnell is a man possessed” portion of the game. But it’s also the Pacers’ strategy — play SGA one-on-one when possible and then come over late, taking him out of rhythm while still closing off passing lanes.
SGA had eight turnovers last game, which is uncharacteristic. He has to make better reads when he’s trapped at the top of the key. In a common theme throughout this series, the Thunder need to move the ball better.
In the past, when SGA has struggled to navigate in the pick and roll, OKC has adjusted by using “flat screens” by Chet Holmgren and their guards — disguising the direction of the screen so it’s harder to double-team the ball and then scramble:
The issue is that Nembhard is very good at reading these and disrupting them. OKC has to be precise about still setting hard screens to force switches when they do this.
I wonder if we see OKC play more minutes super small, with Caruso or Jalen Williams at center. It’s something they did in Game 1 and have been fairly hesitant to do since.
Indiana was very aggressive crashing toward OKC’s big men after SGA got doubled. Somebody from the corner would range way out to take away SGA’s easiest pass. The Thunder could adjust by spacing the court differently to complicate that help, possibly by having somebody stand near the hoop rather than the three-point line (the dunker spot) or bringing somebody else over to receive a pass from SGA.
I don’t think the Pacers did anything especially new offensively in Game 6. They got to the free throw line, launched threes in semi-transition, and stole some offensive rebounds. Most importantly, they turned the ball over just twice in the first half.
OKC can be more aggressive defensively. For lack of a better term, they need to strike more fear in the Pacers. That could mean higher pick-up points, more traps in the pick and roll, and more sporadic double teams. They need to stunt at TJ McConnell more often and limit his falling short jumpers.
Who is the unexpected role player who steps up big? The Pacers are good in large part because their entire team is very capable of this. Bennedict Mathurin did it in Game 3. Obi Toppin and Aaron Nesmith are heat-check shooters. Myles Turner is due. Anybody that plays for the Pacers could go off — which is a scary thought for the Thunder.
Meanwhile, OKC is also a deep and skilled team. Aaron Wiggins feels like this type of player. Lu Dort can easily make a few threes in a row. The much-maligned Chet Holmgren has struggled on offense and needs to hit some shots. If you’ve read this far, you know I say this every time: For more offensive movement and spark, Isaiah Joe could get them going in a few minutes here or there.
I’m not making a prediction. Let’s just see what happens.