The Warriors' vaunted system collapses without Steph Curry
Curry's ankle injury, which likely has him out until the postseason, once again exposes the Warriors' inability to survive without him.
(Thanks to Jorden Anfinson for the graphic.)
During the three years in which the Golden State Warriors had Kevin Durant on their team, there was often a lot of consternation about what happened when Curry didn’t play. Even though Durant was generally recognized as the best player, the Warriors were significantly worse when Durant played without Curry than vice versa. If Durant was better, how could this be?
Well, sometimes the explanation is not as simple as better or worse. The fact is that the Warriors’ offensive system, based around complex passing and improvisational ball movement, relies heavily on the presence of Curry. The system is Curry. (It is also Draymond Green, who is a huge part of making it work.) When Curry doesn’t play, the system is a lot less effective.
Curry went down with an ankle injury a week ago in a loss to the Celtics. Without Curry, the Warriors finished with 88 points. They lost at the last second to the moribund Spurs, then managed to put up only 90 points against the terrible Orlando Magic.
On the season, they score 114 points per 100 possessions with Curry on the court, with a net rating of plus-10. In 1,255 minutes with Curry on the bench, they have scored just 103 points per 100 possessions, with a net rating of minus-three. They go from one of the best offenses in the league to one of the worst without Curry.
Their system is focused on generating three-pointers and leveraging shooting around the court. They run shooters through screens to get them looks and force rotations. They move the ball quickly and cut to the hoop. The beauty of it is that they often play multiple non-shooters, who provide value by screening, passing, and cutting. The gravity of the shooters makes it possible.
Without Curry’s gravity, defenses have an easier time dealing with all of these screens. They can fight over and contest the shooters as much as they can. A Jordan Poole (or even Klay Thompson) quick-trigger three is simply less threatening than a Steph Curry quick-trigger three.
But the Warriors can still generate those catch-and-shoot threes at will. They are not always bad shots. Thompson is Thompson; he is the second-best shooter of all time. Poole is a good shooter, and so is Andrew Wiggins. These plays are foundational to their offense:
That’s a Thompson catch-and-shoot three. Thompson is not yet completely himself, but that is never a bad shot.
There are two problems here, though: 1) What happens when these looks aren’t going down? Thompson, Poole, and Wiggins combined to shoot 20-57 from the field against the Magic, including 9-26 from three. There is basically no secondary scoring. Their backup point guard is Chris Chiozza. Creating better looks gets hard quickly.
And 2): Curry isn’t just better than Thompson, Poole, and Wiggins because he’s a better shooter. More importantly, Curry can score from anywhere, and he is a fantastic passer. Curry unlocks the ball movement that the Warriors are able to create. He starts swing-swing sequences by passing out of these looks, and works the pick-and-roll with Green or another screener. He gets the ball out of his hands quickly and then runs around the court, taking defenders with him.
Thompson has always been a pure shooter. Poole is always looking for his shot, and can sometimes miss opportunities to get the offense going:
That’s a heavily contested, early shot clock look. The beauty of the Warriors is that they don’t usually devolve into this type of offense. The other players are just standing on the perimeter. Chuma Okeke, defending the non-shooter Jonathan Kuminga, is waiting for Poole in the paint. The Warriors are not built to create shots like this.
Wiggins gets tunnel vision:
Otto Porter Jr., a quality shooter, is standing wide open on the near side. Wiggins takes a pull-up long two instead. Wiggins is better as an auxiliary scorer in this offense; he is overtaxed when Curry isn’t playing due to his lack of playmaking ability.
The Warriors run the same sets that they do when Curry is playing. But they do it too slow, without generating much of an advantage. The shot comes too early, with no further probing to break down the defense:
Curry is great at beating his defender and firing quick passes. He gets the defense moving. It is difficult to execute that at a high level; the Warriors have been committing a ton of turnovers without Curry.
The Warriors miss Curry’s playmaking as much as his shooting. They have already fallen out of second-place in the West, and are in danger of falling further with 10 games left in the regular season.
What else is happening in the NBA?
Zion Williamson probably will not play this season, but he posted this video on Instagram:
That’s a good sign!
Marc Stein reported on Substack that Jazz coach Quinn Snyder might be a candidate to replace Frank Vogel this summer if the Lakers fire Vogel. That would certainly shake up the league. Snyder is a great coach. The Jazz are running out of playoff failures; they might need to have playoff success this year to keep their era going.