The silver linings for the Eastern Conference's non-playoff teams
With the conference's top 10 nearly set, a look at what has gone right for the lottery teams.
The league’s play-in races are far from finished, but in all likelihood, we know the participants. Only the 11th-place Brooklyn Nets, who are two games back of 10th but just lost to the Hornets, have any real chance of changing that.
Before the playoffs, let’s take a look at what this season taught us about these lottery teams.
Brooklyn Nets (26-40): Roster and coaching clarity
The lesson for the Nets is simple: this roster, as currently constructed, is far from real contention. There is too much overlap with these players’ skillsets, and too little creativity both offensively and defensively.
This team is a collection of players that would fit perfectly next to an alpha. The problem is figuring out who that player is — and the landscape of superstar movement indicates that they might not know until the summer of 2025, when multiple stars could come available.
Still, there is value is knowing this roster’s limits. I would have traded Mikal Bridges for big value at the trade deadline. Perhaps they will act as sellers this summer and overhaul the roster, or go the other way and aggressively try to improve. Without many of their own future draft picks, the first option seems to make more sense.
Other takeaways:
Cam Thomas is a sixth man, at best, until he balances his offensive game.
The Ben Simmons contract is going to handicap them. Paying max contract money to a guy who’s a non-factor on the court is brutal.
Nic Claxton’s free agency will be fascinating. Reports suggest the Nets see him as part of their future plans. Claxton is an elite switchable big who also has rim protection chops — and a burgeoning offensive skillset. I’m a fan.
The NBA is better when Mikal Bridges is playing for a contender. His defense has fallen off since he nearly won Defensive Player of the Year two years ago — correlating with a huge offensive role and the Nets’ general mediocrity.
Toronto Raptors: Scottie Barnes is still the guy
Barnes’s season is likely over after a hand fracture. But he’s shown this season that Toronto was right to entrust their future to him. He upped his scoring average by five points and, crucially, increased his playmaking and efficiency to go along with it. He shot the ball better and more confidently from the perimeter, while also often guarding the opponent’s best player.
Questions remain about his aptitude as a true number one option. His offensive game is somewhat plodding, relying on physical bullying and jump shots and floaters when opponents go under screens. What are his go-to moves? When the chips are down, as a top offensive option, he has to be able to get to his spot.
Barnes scores 0.696 points per possession when he isolates, ranking 79th out of 81 qualifying players. Immanuel Quickley, since being acquired for OG Anunoby, often handles the crunch time offense, with Barnes as an afterthought.
But Barnes is a crafty passer and has found good offense by backing down smaller players. He’s on an upward trajectory.
Other takeaways:
I’m not entirely sure what the Raptors’ long-term plan is, but I’m willing to hear them out. In trading Pascal Siakam and Anunoby for players instead of picks (plus their unusual trade for Kelly Olynyk at the deadline), they showed that they want a soft rebuild. They want good players right now, and they’ll go from there.
Their approach reminds me of the Knicks over the past few years, who just kept adding quality NBA players and eventually found a deep, fierce playoff team that was still rich with assets. Of course, they signed Jalen Brunson in free agency. The Raptors need Barnes to be that guy.
Toronto played 439 minutes with Barnes, Quickley, and RJ Barrett together. They had a plus-three net rating in those minutes. There’s an interesting core here.
Rookie Gradey Dick is legit. He’s getting a lot of minutes and he’s launching threes. He has size and competes defensively — enough to provide hope that he’ll rise out of liability territory. His movement shooter skills are a great ingredient for this team.
First-year coach Darko Rajakovic has a creative offensive playbook. The thing to watch next season will be the synergy between Quickley and Barnes within that system.
Charlotte Hornets: Brandon Miller
It has been a pretty awful season for Charlotte in many respects. LaMelo Ball has been hurt nearly the whole time. Young center Mark Williams hasn’t played since December 8 with a back injury. At the trade deadline, they had a 10-41 record after a 120-84 loss to Milwaukee.
But rookie Brandon Miller, a widely-debated second-overall pick, has lived up to the hype. Miller is a natural scorer, shooting 37 percent from three on a tough shot diet. Given Charlotte’s lack of other creators, he rarely gets clean catch and shoot looks. He flies off screens and shoots efficiently on handoffs and pick-and-rolls.
He’s not just a pure shooter, either. He’s flashed a smooth pull-up midrange game and he has the size and athleticism to get to the rim — though finishing in the paint is a work in progress. Charlotte’s dire situation has given him a chance to get reps as a ball-handler, running frequent pick-and-rolls. His shooting threat draws defensive attention.
Combined with his versatile defense, Miller’s skillset will make him a top-end starter — at least. There’s All-Star potential here.
Other takeaways:
At the deadline, Charlotte finally became sellers and brought in a crew of legit NBA players (plus future picks) to make them a more respectable team. It worked immediately when they won four straight. Some injuries knocked them back down and they’ve lost a bunch since, but they have an interesting cast of players.
Four(!) of those new arrivals had been afterthoughts in OKC before the deadline. Tre Mann now starts at point guard and has been pretty good. He’s a steady playmaker who has shot well from three — keep an eye on him. Vasilije Micic, a 30-year-old Serbian rookie, is a crafty playmaker. Davis Bertans has full license to fire from deep. Even Aleksej Pokusevski has seen some minutes lately.
They’re playing Grant Williams at center a bunch in small lineups and using him as a facilitator at the elbow. They run high-low actions with Miller coming off screens and Miles Bridges burrowing his way into post position. It’s an imperfect team, but they’re interesting — way more than they were before the deadline.
Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham as top option
Obviously, it’s been a tough season for the Pistons. But Cunningham has played well, all things considered, and has fared better since Detroit started giving him real spacing. His scoring and efficiency are up — including 36 percent on threes — and he’s averaging more than seven assists per game.
He’s not a guy who will consistently barge his way to the rim, but he plays at his own pace and is shooting a solid 48 percent on midrange looks. The next step is refining his floater — he’s shooting just 42 percent on shots in the paint, but outside the restricted area. Exploiting that area could help him gain more penetration and get to the free throw line more often.
The Pistons added Simone Fontecchio, a smooth shooter and driver, at the deadline and his added spacing has been huge for the Pistons’ core group.
Other takeaways:
Cunningham and Jaden Ivey have yet to really amplify each other offensively. Getting them working together will determine the future of this core.
James Wiseman, who has struggled mightily for most of the year, has been playing better lately, especially defensively. He looks more comfortable executing drop coverage.
Playing Isaiah Stewart at the four is a noble experiment, and to his credit Stewart is shooting 38 percent from three, but I’m not sure it’s the best long-term idea. Stewart struggles to catch-and-drive from the perimeter and make decisions with the ball. Lineups with Stewart, Ausar Thompson, and a center are dead on arrival offensively.
Speaking of Thompson: He is absolutely outstanding on defense. He can be one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA, if he isn’t already. But he needs to shoot better than 18 percent from three. Otherwise, he’ll only be able to thrive in a specific infrastructure that can take on his lack of spacing. Here’s hoping he gets there.
Coach Monty Williams has justifiably earned criticism for his all-bench lineups, which usually get killed. He’s generally misused Ivey throughout the year. But he does continue to run quality offensive sets that use his talent well, the way he did in Phoenix. He deserves credit for that.
Washington Wizards: The rise of Deni Avdija
Mike Shearer at Basketball Poetry wrote an excellent deep dive into Avdija’s rise with the lowly Wizards. To summarize: Avdija has rediscovered himself offensively, gaining confidence in his jump shot and adding a bruising element to his game. His scoring is up and he looks like a keeper.
There aren’t many bright spots in Washington. Avdija could be a contributor on a competitive version of the Wizards.
Other takeaways:
Rookie Bilal Coulibaly and Corey Kispert are the other two potential keepers. Coulibaly is a legit defender, but a low-usage offensive player with room to grow. Kispert is a movement shooter who can also score inside the arc.
The Wizards overall play frenetic basketball — they run at the fastest pace in the league and give up points all over the place. Whoever takes over as the full-time coach (Wes Unseld Jr. moved to the front office in January) will be tasked with establishing some sort of identity.
The inexplicable collapse of Jordan Poole means the Wizards are saddled with one of the league’s worst contracts. They should do what they can to get Poole back on track.