The mini-battles that will determine the Lakers-Pelicans play-in game
The Lakers and Pelicans meet again in a huge game. A look into the chess match.
The Lakers and Pelicans franchises have felt inter-connected over the past half-decade. Anthony Davis, of course, is a Pelicans legend. The players and picks that the Lakers sent in return for AD in 2019 have shaped the current New Orleans team.
Zion Williamson was at one point the latest young challenger to LeBron James — and LeBron always seemed to get up for games against Zion. This season, the teams met in the semifinals of the inaugural In-Season Tournament, and the Lakers exposed a burgeoning Pels team in a memorable blowout, led by a LeBron three-point heater.
Then on Sunday, the two met in a crucial regular season finale. Again, the Lakers dominated. Now we get a rematch in the 7-8 play-in game.
The winner secures the seventh-seed and a date with the Denver Nuggets in the first round. The loser must beat the winner of 9-10 game to grab the eighth-seed, or else be eliminated.
Avoiding Denver would be ideal for both teams, but it’s highly unlikely that either will tank. Nobody wants to risk a winner-take-all game against, potentially, Stephen Curry and the Warriors.
So with the knowledge of Sunday’s game, let’s take a look at what to watch:
The Lakers’ pick-and-roll attack
The Lakers dissected the Pelicans’ defense on Sunday. They scored 70 points in the first half and assisted 23 of their 31 field goals — LeBron had 13 assists by himself.
Much of that came with the LeBron-AD pick-and-roll. The Lakers flowed into their pick-and-rolls the same way nearly every time. They ran a type of what’s called “Chin” action, with AD screening off the ball for D’Angelo Russell to run through the paint.
Here’s an example from the very first play of game. Notice how Russell runs through the paint before AD sets a screen for LeBron, distracting a potential help defender:
Jonas Valanciunas couldn’t get back to Davis fast enough. The Lakers played him off the court quickly — Valanciunas got pulled three minutes into the half, and didn’t come back until the fourth quarter.
At one point that Russell cut through the paint led directly to a bucket on a wonderful pass from LeBron:
Mostly, though, AD setting that “Chin” screen at the start of possessions helped the Lakers get into a flow and create movement that confused defenders.
They settled into running a ton of LeBron-AD pick-and-rolls on the wing. That placed the three other Lakers on the opposite side of the floor, creating difficult decisions for Pelicans help defenders.
Note the bind that Trey Murphy III is in here:
Murphy (circled) is the low man, meaning he’s the guy that’s supposed to help on Davis near the rim. But here, the Pelicans are “icing” the pick-and-roll — meaning they’re forcing LeBron left and trying to contain them near the baseline. Murphy sticks closer to the guy he’s supposed to be guarding, Spencer Dinwiddie.
LeBron lobbed it over backup center Larry Nance Jr. for a dunk:
Nance is athletic and smart, but he’s undersized compared to Davis. The Lakers took advantage.
The natural adjustment for New Orleans is providing more help in the paint. They did, pinching in from the corner as the game went on.
But watch how LeBron and the Lakers responded:
That guy standing in the corner doesn’t have to just sit still! Dyson Daniels, guarding Rui Hachimura in the corner, steps up to take a rolling Davis. Hachimura lurks along the baseline and LeBron curls a bounce pass. Dunk.
This happened more than once, usually with Hachimura — who timed his cuts brilliantly.
The Pelicans will have to strike a balance between providing help on AD’s rolls and keeping an eye on the guy in the corner.
It will be fascinating to see what happens with the Pels’ center minutes. Is Valanciunas playable? Does Nance play upwards of 35 minutes? How often do we see Zion at center — an intriguing, slightly risky look that they’ve gone to more lately? Cody Zeller or Jeremiah Robinson-Earl could see time, too.
A tough matchup for Zion
The Lakers might be one of the best teams in the league at guarding Zion. LeBron is a like-for-like size matchup and has proven to be very effective guarding him one-on-one. AD is always lurking as a help defender.
One of the Pelicans’ most effective plays is having their center (Nance or Valanciunas) screen for Zion in order to attack slow-footed centers. But AD can handle Zion’s freight train drives and won’t get blown by. That leaves Zion either attacking LeBron or ramming into AD at the rim.
They’ll have to find other ways to weaponize Zion. One option is to have shooters or guards screen for him, drawing smaller players into the action. But teams have been all over that, ducking under the screen and scramming the smaller guy out of there. That action can be run with more force and unpredictability — forcing smaller guys to handle Zion, and getting three-point looks for CJ McCollum or Murphy.
It would be great for the Pelicans could get him and the returning Brandon Ingram — who played on a minutes limit on Sunday after missing 12 games with a knee contusion — enhancing each other. But that’s a much bigger task.
Stray thoughts:
Another way for the Lakers to target the Pelicans in pick-and-roll is by having both LeBron and AD screen for Austin Reaves:
In this case, it leads to Zion switching onto Reaves — a mismatch.
The Lakers ran this play multiple times in a row at the start of the third quarter. The Pelicans switched the LeBron-AD pick-and-roll this time, but LeBron swings it to Reaves and sets a screen for him immediately. This play — the LeBron-Reaves two-man game — is a failsafe for the Lakers.
The Lakers did a good job on Sunday guarding the three-point line, where Murphy and McCollum in particular have been deadly. They have to run those guys off the line and switch with discipline, or those two will punish them.
The Pelicans can space the Lakers out when AD sits, opening up super-small lineups filled with shooting. We saw a glimpse of that on Sunday, when Ingram and Daniels were basically playing center.
Prediction: Lakers win by double digits. They have the Pels’ number.