The Indiana Pacers are the league's surprise playoff team
Led by Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers are a legitimate contender for a spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
There are a few teams you could pick as the biggest surprise in the NBA so far. None came out of nowhere more than the Indiana Pacers, who are 23-18 and comfortably in the top eight of the Eastern Conference at the halfway mark. I picked the Pacers to finish dead last in the preseason. They have proven me and many others wrong.
At the heart of their success is young point guard Tyrese Haliburton, who has emerged as a bona fide All-Star this season. Haliburton is a taller and lankier Chris Paul, a floor general with immaculate shooting touch and an innate understanding of how to get his teammates involved. He leads the league in assists and averages 20 points on great efficiency.
The Pacers have a better record than multiple East teams that have more than one star player, and Haliburton deserves a lot of credit for that. He stabilizes them, keeping them in rhythm and setting up the offense. His distribution is calm and on-time, empowering teammates to make plays.
One of the Pacers’ best attributes is the pace of their half-court offense. They jog up the court no matter what and get straight into their offense, capitalizing on teams that don’t match up well or run back fast enough. Haliburton leads the charge.
Here he is getting the offense started with 21 seconds on the shot clock after a Hornets made basket:
As simple as it looks, this play is a great encapsulation of Haliburton’s non-box score impact. He realizes that he can give Aaron Nesmith a driving lane by drawing help from PJ Washington. Haliburton makes the pass just as Washington stunts away from Nesmith, and all of a sudden the Pacers have the ball in the paint.
Pushing the ball and attacking the rim is a cheat code to regular season offense. Haliburton and the Pacers have mastered it. They take shots between the 18-22 second mark on the shot clock more frequently than any team in the NBA. That’s helped them achieve a 14th-ranked offense — which would rank third in Haliburton’s minutes — despite a roster that was supposed to be a tank squad.
It helps that the Pacers have a crew of younger, spry players who push the ball and go right to the rim. Rookie Bennedict Mathurin is a leading candidate for Sixth Man of the Year; he leads all players who’ve played at least 20 games as a reserve in points per game. He attacks the rim relentlessly, drawing fouls like a veteran star, and sometimes takes over their crunch time offense (for better or worse).
Andrew Nembhard, another rookie, has been a revelation. He finishes at the rim efficiently and shoots 40 percent from three on solid volume, while also guarding the opponent’s best player every night and doing an admirable job. He’s an incredible find in the second round. In addition, Nesmith was a nice under-the-radar addition, playing well as an undersized power forward in the starting lineup.
The core of the Pacers’ offense, though, always comes back to Haliburton, Buddy Hield, and Myles Turner. Indiana’s specialty, in addition to their hard-charging pace, is their guard-guard screening actions, a tough proposition for defenses. Hield and Haliburton like to screen for each other, slipping into space and creating dilemmas for opposing guards.
Both players are deadeye shooters, so teams have to switch the action with precision. The result is often dribble penetration and kickouts into space, taking advantage of their small, athletic lineup and five-out spacing. Turner’s dual skillset of shooting and bully-ball paint finishing helps them capitalize on advantages.
Hield’s screens for Haliburton can bedevil even the league’s best defenders:
Matisse Thybulle, guarding Hield, realizes too late that he has to switch onto Haliburton way out on the perimeter to prevent a three. Haliburton pounces and drives past him.
The Pacers have developed counters to teams that are able to switch cleanly, often introducing Turner as a secondary screener to get downhill. They run a lot of “Spain” pick-and-roll, with Hield setting a back-screen on Turner’s man and then popping for a three. The point is to get the defense rotating and then pass it through them.
Haliburton, at the end of the day, is their star, and he’s gone a long way toward completing his offensive skillset this season. He’s improved a lot at attacking switches in isolation, preying on opposing weaker defenders. He beats guys off the dribble with a collection of funky moves, stopping and starting and leveraging his exceptional ability to step back for threes:
That’s a clutch late game situation against James Harden and the Sixers. Haliburton acts like he’s going to moonwalk into a stepback, only to scamper into the paint.
This unexpected playoff burst has delayed the much-anticipated sale of their last two playoff-ready vets, Hield and Turner. It feels unlikely that the Pacers would trade these two key aspects of their run for future pieces at this point. That means the calculus has changed for a team thought to be a tear-it-down outfit. The core is in place, and it’s already solid.
It makes more sense to keep building around Haliburton, Mathurin, and Nembhard. Turner will be a free agent this summer and has turned down extension offers. They will have another year before he’s a free agent. Perhaps they’ll pay Turner this summer, or deal him closer to the deadline. He’s a key aspect of their defense, protecting the rim for smaller lineups around him. Whatever the case, their timeline is surprisingly advanced. They can mold this core and see where it takes them rather than going deep into the tank.
It’s a nice luxury for a franchise that prides itself on remaining competitive. Finishing the season in sixth, where they are now, might be a tad optimistic, but they are good enough to make the play-in and challenge for a top-eight spot already. It’s one of the most fun places to be as an NBA franchise, full of hope and opportunity. They can enjoy the ride.