The case for and against the upstart Thunder and Timberwolves
The conference's top teams will face difficult first round matchups.
It’s a unique year in the Western Conference. The top four — Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets, LA Clippers — are solidly ahead of everyone else, yet the attention of the league is on the six teams below them. Proven playoff performers, like the Suns, Warriors, and Lakers, linger as unusually tough first round matchups.
Let’s take a look at Thunder and Timberwolves, two inexperienced teams who look likely to secure the top two seeds.
1. OKC Thunder
The case for: Sophisticated, star-driven offense + swarming defense
The Thunder’s offense is hard to compare to any other team. They rely on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams to beat their defenders off the dribble, but with their teammates capitalizing on those advantages, they avoid monotonous one-on-one basketball.
As has been well-covered, they lead the league by a large margin in drives to the rim. But they pass out of them 42 percent of the time, the second-highest rate in the league. They put pressure on the defense, then slice into the resulting gaps.
Their knockdown three-point shooting helps — everybody can shoot, and as a team, they’re at 40 percent overall.
But their offensive focus and attention to detail is impressive for a team this young. They seize on opposing weaknesses and adjust in real time to defensive scheme changes. When opponents double Gilgeous-Alexander, for instance, they cut around him at precisely the right times.
That sort of maturity will serve them well in the playoffs. Plus, they will cause matchup problems for everybody. Chet Holmgren’s shooting and catch-and-go driving makes life hard for behemoth centers.
They’re also fourth in the league on defense. They may be positionally small, but they fly around the court, helping aggressively at the rim while also closing out on shooters. The maturity they show on offense carries over. The result is a handsy playmaking defense — they lead the league in forcing turnovers, which ignites their speedy transition offense.
The case against: Inexperience and wing depth
It’s unusual for a team this young to go this far. The only real comparable is the early 2010s Thunder. They don’t play like a young team, but the playoffs are a different animal. We won’t know until we know.
Gordon Hayward, acquired at the trade deadline, should help that wing depth. They’ve taken it slow incorporating him, mostly playing him alongside Jalen Williams (J-Dub) when Gilgeous-Alexander rests. Hayward could give them a dose of spacing, size, and experience in closing lineups.
As much as I like the emerging Aaron Wiggins, a do-it-all wing, teams are going to force him, Lu Dort, and Kenrich Williams to prove their three-point shooting is real. Wiggins is a good positional defender, but isn’t an answer unto himself on elite wings. (Dort, J-Dub, and Cason Wallace, to be fair, can handle that job.)
I’m less concerned about their big man depth than others — against Nikola Jokic, no one has a realistic answer, and OKC has shown well this season helping and doubling against him. Jaylin Williams is sturdy in the post, and they grabbed Bismack Biyombo on the buyout market. If Holmgren goes down, they have no real replacement, but that’s the case for any team if their second or third-best player gets hurt.
Josh Giddey playing big minutes in the playoffs would hurt them. But based on their recent decision to start Isaiah Joe over him in the second half in a win over the Clippers, it seems unlikely that Daigneault will stay married to Giddey if it hurts the team.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves
The case for: One of the best defenses in recent memory
The Wolves give up 107.9 points per 100 possessions, three points fewer than the second-closest team, the Cavs. That’s about the same distance between the first and second-best defenses that the 2008 Celtics produced.
This Minnesota team is on a mission to prove that the demise of NBA defense has been greatly exaggerated. They’re getting a Defensive Player of the Year season from Rudy Gobert, who is the clubhouse favorite to win the trophy.
What’s amazing is that they’ve put such incredible defensive personnel around the league’s best (non-Wembanyama?) rim protector. I covered Jaden McDaniels’s excellence in detail last month. Anthony Edwards and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are also ferocious on-ball stoppers. Kyle Anderson’s arms stretch everywhere and he recently held his own against Giannis. Naz Reid is the type of switchable big that every team wants.
With Reid and Karl-Anthony Towns, the Wolves have legitimate secondary rim protection next to Gobert. We’ve never seen Gobert surrounded by a cast of defenders like this. The old playoff trick against Gobert of going five-out spacing, pulling him away from the rim, and attacking weak defenders won’t work this year.
If any team has a prayer of containing Jokic, it’s them.
The case against: Half-court offense and late-game decision making
They’re an ordinary 17th in offensive rating. With their star talent and the stabilizing influence of Mike Conley, there’s reason to believe they can score enough to get by in the postseason — their starting lineup has an offensive rating of 119, four points higher than the team overall.
But there’ve been some nervy moments in the clutch this year. They’ve turned it over on 15 percent of their possessions when the game’s close with under five minutes left, ranking 27th in the NBA.
Clutch stats always have the small sample size caveat. But the issue speaks to a larger potential flaw: it’s difficult to trust this team’s best players to make the right decisions in big moments.
Edwards, while obviously a budding superstar, is only 22 and prone to playing hero ball. He has room to grow as a distributor and organizer. Towns has a history of scattered performances in big games, dealing with foul trouble and turnover issues. He’s been known to toss passes into the second row.
Add in Gobert (notoriously uncomfortable with dribbling) and McDaniels (a defense-first 23-year-old who missed last year’s postseason because he punched a wall and broke his hand) and it’s fair to question what happens when, say, it’s Game 5 and the score is tied with five minutes left.
Edwards and Towns are tough shot-makers and could render this concern irrelevant. But staying organized and avoiding mistakes in big moments could determine their playoff run.