Ranking every NBA team by tiers, part 1

Previewing all the contenders.

The regular season starts today. Let’s take a look at what to expect from all 30 teams — starting with the contenders.

Part 2 comes later this morning.

Grade A contenders

Boston Celtics

The champs start out their title defense as favorites. They did not lose a single key player from last year’s run, though Kristaps Porzingis is out for months to start the season. Age, apart from Al Horford, is a non-factor, and their main players are exceptionally durable. There is a lot to like.

The Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown offseason handwringing feels overblown. Their roster is uber-talented and their formula works. Porzingis made them a regular season juggernaut last year, but they won the championship mostly without him. They are tough to pick against.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Good luck poking holes in this team. They have an elite player at pretty much every basketball skill you can think of. They now have two top-tier rim protectors who should fit nicely next to each other in Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Alex Caruso is a massively impactful defender who also seems tailor-made for their “everybody screens for everybody” offensive system.

Of course, it’s all built around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, whose shotmaking and unselfish style makes the whole thing work. They’ll face questions about youth and some smaller-scale development questions — is Holmgren’s three-point release faster now? — but those are only nit-picks.

Denver Nuggets

With Nikola Jokic and a reasonable supporting cast, the Nuggets can’t be dropped from this tier. He’s a walking mismatch.

Denver has their share of doubters. Jamal Murray’s subpar postseason and Olympic struggles have people wondering if he can get back to his peak levels. The loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope stresses their young depth. Russell Westbrook … is here. But regardless of anything else, their starting lineup should again be one of the league’s best.

Title aspirations

New York Knicks

There are concerns, but they have all the tools to make a deep run. Karl Anthony-Towns is the second scoring option they needed to make Jalen Brunson’s life easier. Every champion needs top-end role players who can fill multiple holes, and the Knicks have that, too.

They will have to assemble a second unit somehow. But the talent is here.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The flip side of that trade. Julius Randle in here instead of Towns could prove a rocky fit, but given his added on-ball juice and the Donte DiVincenzo element, they still have that conference finals-level upside. They’ll need Jaden McDaniels to go up a level as a shooter — he already has a nice midrange bag.

They have a lot to manage with DiVincenzo and Naz Reid pushing for big minutes off the bench — particularly as they figure out if they can stay afloat offensively when Mike Conley sits. Anthony Edwards is ready to take another step, especially as a facilitator. Like the Knicks, they’re appointment viewing.

Philadelphia 76ers

There are, of course, injury questions with Joel Embiid and Paul George. But this new big three, with the flamethrowing Tyrese Maxey next to them, fits like a glove. Daryl Morey assembled a nice supporting cast, too, led by Caleb Martin.

They will have to find a way to defend bigger power forwards and deal with Embiid’s issues defending higher up in pick-and-rolls and jockeying for rebounds. Maxey, who emerged as a superstar in last year’s playoffs, can overcome a lot.

Dallas Mavericks

Last year, they combined the Luka Doncic-Kyrie Irving duo with an elite defense and they went to the Finals. They’ll have to reach those same heights defensively with Klay Thompson in there instead of Derrick Jones Jr.

Naji Marshall and Quentin Grimes were good pickups. A lot rides on PJ Washington stepping up, guarding some of the league’s best creators. With Luka and Kyrie, their ceiling is high.

High ceiling, high stakes

Phoenix Suns

There’s a lot riding on this season for both of the teams in this tier, but most of all for the Suns, whose postseason crash out to Minnesota last year was an unmitigated disaster. They’ve invested a lot in this team.

The offensive talent still leaps off the page, and they’ve again done a nice job of assembling bargain talent around the stars. Tyus Jones is here to start at point guard. Mike Budenholzer is known for assembling a quality system. They’ll have to shoot more threes, play in more of an offensive flow, and find a way to remain around average defensively.

Milwaukee Bucks

Khris Middleton has already been ruled out to start the season, which seems not great. The Bucks are old and thin, but Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard is still quite the complementary duo. Their starting lineup was dominant last season when healthy. If things break right, they are a legitimate Eastern Conference threat.

I really like Gary Trent Jr. and think he can be an upgrade over Malik Beasley. Young AJ Green is underrated — a movement shooter-type with legit defensive potential. (Think Sam Hauser.) They need Pat Connaughton to rebound after he struggled last year.

Middle of the pack, but can push for more

Indiana Pacers

Last year’s (admittedly injury-affected) run showed they can play high level basketball. Tyrese Haliburton’s supersonic offense, combined with Pascal Siakam’s extra shot creation, is tough for any team to solve. The added ball-handling of Andrew Nembhard and TJ McConnell is important, too.

If healthy, and Haliburton was pushing through pain late last year, they blow teams away with energy and pace in the regular season. Reaching the top four of the East will require some defense.

Memphis Grizzlies

You’ll see some people elevate the Grizzlies above this tier. If all goes right, the Grizzlies could return to their old ways in the conference’s top two. They’ll have to prove a few things before they get to that point — most notably that Ja Morant is the same top ten superstar. Given what he did in his brief cameo last season, all signs point to yes.

We’ll also have to see whether Zach Edey, projected starting center, is a reasonable facsimile of Steven Adams, and how their young bench fares. GG Jackson is already hurt. Brandon Clarke is coming off a torn achilles. They need Vince Williams and John Konchar to contribute, and they need somebody to play backup point guard. (Scotty Pippen Jr.?)

But their core has a proven winning formula.

LA Lakers

The Lakers had LeBron James and Anthony Davis healthy all last year and still had to deal with the play-in tournament. After a lateral offseason, it’s tough to imagine them getting all that much better.

But LeBron and AD are still good enough to strike fear in playoff opponents, if they get the opportunity. They’ll need JJ Redick to prove an effective coach, and Dalton Knecht to slide seamlessly into the rotation.

Cleveland Cavaliers

They’re opposite of the Lakers — a deep, defensively-sound team that can win in the regular season, but faces questions in the postseason. The Cavs should be healthier this year and brought in Kenny Atkinson as coach, with the task of figuring out the Jarrett Allen-Evan Mobley double-big pairing.

The spacing will be wonky, as usual, but Cleveland has ways of overcoming that, and will suffocate teams defensively.

Middle of the pack

Miami Heat

We know what we’re getting from the Jimmy Butler-Bam Adebayo Heat. The hope is that they’ll take the regular season a bit more seriously, and find a way to juice a half-court offense that too often looks moribund.

They have a nice collection of NBA-level depth. Adebayo wants to shoot threes, and rookie Kel’el Ware could form some interesting two-big combos. The pressure is on Tyler Herro to fight off Terry Rozier and prove his worth as an offensive creator. Jaime Jaquez Jr. is a bully in the post. Duncan Robinson is a one-man whirlwind of crafty movement.

Erik Spoelstra will switch defensive schemes all the time and drag coaches into chess matches.

New Orleans Pelicans

No idea what to do with them! They brought in Dejounte Murray, but now have no actual centers on the team. Brandon Ingram is still here after nobody, apparently, bit on a trade in the offseason — creating a potentially awkward situation and some difficult lineup decisions.

The talent, though, is there. Zion Williamson remains an elite offensive engine. Murray will juice their offense and prop up bench units. Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III are more important than ever; Jones, especially, will be asked to carry a huge defensive load.

They’re a matchup nightmare for opponents, but it’s unclear how much that will translate to consistent winning.

Orlando Magic

Expectations are growing for the young Magic, built around Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Their fierce, physical defense will again be their calling card; to reach a higher level, though, they’ll have to find a way to produce a better and more consistent offense.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, signed from Denver, brings three-point shooting without sacrificing defense. But otherwise, it will be about internal improvement.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings play an up-tempo, entertaining style, and now we get to see what it looks like with DeMar DeRozan in the mix. I’m optimistic that he’ll mesh offensively, running pick and rolls with Domantas Sabonis and operating reserve units. It’s the defense, where the Kings just got even smaller and slower than they already were, that could be an issue.

They’ll rely on Keegan Murray to guard some really good players. He can do it — his isolation defense numbers were outstanding last year — but he’ll have to show he handle the physicality and stay out of foul trouble.

The Kings are fascinating and always a good watch. They have an uphill climb to contention this season.