Playoff Preview Part 1: What you need to know about Clips-Nuggets and Lakers-Wolves
In-depth previews of the two most fascinating first round series.
I found these two series the most interesting. There are star players all over the place, and all four of these teams have legitimate potential to win multiple rounds.
Here’s a few things I’ll be keeping an eye on:
Clippers vs. Nuggets
When the Nuggets have the ball
The Clips’ defensive gameplan will revolve around Ivica Zubac in whatever form it takes. My guess is that Zubac will be asked to stick close to Nikola Jokic — potentially on a one-on-one island for as long as it’s remotely tenable.
The other way that (heavy) responsibility could take shape is in pick and roll coverage. When Jokic sets a screen, we could see Zubac disregard the ball-handler and shade toward Jokic. The goal is to keep the ball out of Jokic’s hands and take away those deadly short floaters.
That scheme requires precise back-end rotations, and risks conceding a parade of open threes if the Nuggets play their cards right.
Nobody can survive on an island with Jokic for long. But if Zubac can give Jokic a real battle on post-ups, the Clips can wait to bring help defenders. Late help means dictating the terms of engagement — directing the ball into lesser shooters’ hands, like Christian Braun or Russell Westbrook. Early, heavy help is what Jokic wants.
Keep an eye on Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr., who will each likely spend a lot of time on Jamal Murray. They will have to get through screens to prevent undesirable switches (the Nuggets will target James Harden relentlessly). And Dunn in particular is an expert at stealing pocket passes.
When the Clippers have the ball
The matchups when the starters are on the floor will be wonky. Michael Porter Jr. or Murray is going to have to guard Norm Powell. Not ideal for Denver.
The Clips have lots of pet actions for Powell. He might be the NBA’s best at curling tightly around off-ball screens, forcibly running his defender into a wall. Porter is liable to run into a lot of walls.
LA can also space Powell on the weak side when Harden runs pick and rolls. That would leave Powell solo on the far side of the court — so when Harden draws defenders, Powell would have a runway for his signature straight-line drives.
Denver could counter by playing the more mobile Westbrook over Porter. Uh, that’s also not ideal for Denver.
The other reason Zubac is crucial in this series: attacking Jokic in pick and roll. We’ll likely see the Nuggets play Jokic aggressively in coverage, forcing Zubac to make plays in the open court.
Alternatively, though, a Denver adjustment might be keeping Jokic a little further back in pick and roll. The goal? Dare Harden to get downhill and make him a scorer. That scheme would put pressure on Zubac to get behind Jokic and finish consistently in traffic.
Miscellaneous notes:
This has potential to be the best series of the first round.
Westbrook is a mystery box. But the rest of Denver’s depth is worse. They need to steal a few good five-minute stretches from Jalen Pickett.
The Clips, on the other hand, are brimming with depth.
Aaron Gordon guarding Kawhi Leonard will be a heck of a battle. Please, Kawhi’s knees.
A major potential Clips weakness: As good as their defensive personnel is, they do not have any notable secondary rim protection. To beat Jokic, it really helps to have an impactful back-line helper, and they don’t have that.
I couldn’t pick against Jokic as a dominant force. But this series is a heavyweight clash provided health.
Prediction: Denver in 7.
Timberwolves vs. Lakers
When the Timberwolves have the ball
I can’t wait to see Anthony Edwards deal with this crafty, hyper-aggresive Lakers defense.
The Lakers will shrink the floor, place defenders in early help position, and funnel shots to weaker shooters. This will be a big playmaking challenge for Edwards. I see two big areas that he’ll have to solve:
Middle pick and rolls: The Lakers will switch most pick and rolls. Edwards will try to attack the switch instantly, before the defender is set. But keep an eye on how the Lakers keep the other switching defender active, lingering in the lane, so that the other three defenders can stick a little closer to shooters.
Wing isos and post-ups: Ant likes attacking on the wing. The Lakers will load the box — i.e., the guy “defending” the opposite corner shooter will stand all the way over on Ant’s side as a help defender. They want to force cross-court passes and keep Ant out of the paint.
Minnesota will struggle if they are over-reliant on Edwards solving all of these complicated problems by himself. He is 23. But he will like a lot of the Laker defenders in front of him, and his elite three-point shooting will keep his offense afloat even if the Lakers are throwing extra guys at him.
Attacking Luka Doncic is low-hanging fruit, and they obviously should do that. I wonder if Edwards will also poke at LeBron, too, just to make him work and test his lateral speed.
When the Lakers have the ball
They’re gonna space out Rudy Gobert immediately. Jaxson Hayes will play some, to catch Luka lobs, but I’m sure we’ll see a lot of the Dorian Finney-Smith and Rui Hachimura frontcourt.
Jaden McDaniels is a better Luka defender than he gets credit for. With his length, he’ll win some battles by catching up to Luka’s slow-down drives and pull-ups. And winning some battles is really all you can ask.
Edwards is a weapon defensively, and the Wolves will unleash him. Mike Conley may have to start on Austin Reaves (unideal!) but Ant will attract that matchup a lot. He may also have to guard LeBron, depending on Julius Randle’s aptitude in that matchup.
LA pet late-game actions mainly feature Reaves setting screens for LeBron and Luka. Minnesota has to be prepared for those. Zoning up Gobert in the paint is tempting, but might be untenable given LeBron and Luka’s ability to dissect coverages.
Miscellaneous notes:
It goes without saying, but the Wolves need Randle to make shots and create advantages on offense.
This might be a tough series for Jarred Vanderbilt, given that it allows Gobert an easy guy to guard defensively.
Minnesota has a ton of lineup flexibility — much, much more than the Lakers. They can go smaller with Naz Reid. They can add movement shooting with Donte DiVincenzo, or defense with Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
They can also mix in rookie Jaylen Clark. He could give them a few minutes here and there guarding Luka.
The Lakers will ruthlessly attack weaker defenders. If they really like a matchup, they’ll force the switch and send everyone else to the baseline and corners.
Prediction: Lakers in 6