There are only a few NBA players who can engage takeover mode, controlling everything on the court and winning a game with minimal help. That mode is reserved for players who can get their own bucket at will while also shutting things down on defense. Jimmy Butler is one of those players.
We saw it in the 2020 bubble playoffs, when he willed the Heat to the Finals and then produced some epic duels with LeBron that stole Miami two games. He’s been back to that peak level at points in these playoffs, putting up 40 against both Atlanta and Philly.
Against Boston’s fierce defense in the conference finals, however, he’s been reduced to a couple of clunkers. Dealing with a knee injury, he put up 3-14 and 4-18 shooting lines in Games 4 and 5 as the Heat lost their 2-1 series lead. The Celtics played drop coverage and stuck Robert Williams III on Butler, keeping a presence in the paint to deny Butler’s patented bulldozing to the room.
Everything changed in Game 6. Fueled by Draymond Green’s bulletin board material, Butler showed up in the elimination game. His 47-point, 8-assist, 4-steal performance is one of the most clutch performances in league history. Basketball strategy can’t completely explain that performance: Butler simply took on a new aggressive approach, looking for his shot and refusing to concede anything to the Celtics. He played almost the entire game and took 29 shots, making 16.
Butler’s style is old-fashioned, and unique to this era of basketball. He plays within the offense, rather than taking it over. As a bad three-point shooter, defenses go under screens for him, which makes it hard for him to orchestrate from the pick-and-roll like most superstars today. Butler instead uses a variety of methods to get himself looks. He’s a great facilitator, but he doesn’t co-opt the point guard position. He seeks out the midrange and uses that threat to get to the rim. Stylistically, similar to Kawhi Leonard, he is a modern-day Michael Jordan.
Look back at the way he attacked the Celtics in Game 6. He would seal players in the post and cut to the rim at opportune times:
Notice how he lurks at half court until Bam Adebayo draws help in the post. Butler is great at timing his cuts, and he’s comfortable operating in a sea of bodies deep in the paint.
He found a way to attack the Celtics’ drop coverage, which had fared so well over the past few games. He targeted Grant Williams instead of Al Horford or Williams III:
Leaving Williams on an island like this is not a recipe for success. The Celtics have to find a way to put more bodies in front of Butler in the paint. They especially had a hard time when Horford wasn’t on the court. The Heat were more clever about spacing their offense to give Butler room to operate.
Miami also used Butler as a screener, and forced Tatum to guard the ball-handler in pick-and-rolls. Watch this fourth quarter pick and pop that frees Butler:
When the Celtics are in drop, Tatum loses some of his impact on these pick-and-rolls, as he has to chase over the screen. Above, Butler had Horford on him and beat him to the paint. Horford had to honor Kyle Lowry coming off the screen.
Drawing the Celtics’ rim protectors to the perimeter and then attacking is a good formula. One wonders if the Celtics will be more willing to switch against Butler to prevent him from finding lanes to the rim, even if it means conceding mismatches.
Here’s a bunch of other stuff that I’ll be watching tonight:
— Kyle Lowry’s aggressiveness. Lowry looked great in Game 6, producing a couple of huge fourth quarter shots. When he’s aggressive as a ball-handler, the Heat are a completely different offensive team. I want to see him continue to look for Chris Paul-type midrange shots off screens:
Adebayo was able to seal in the paint and get the offensive rebound. This type of look is important for a Heat offense that can stutter sometimes, especially without Tyler Herro. (Herro is listed as questionable with a groin injury for Game 7.)
— Erik Spoelstra pushed the right buttons with his rotations in Game 6. He went with more Caleb Martin minutes, which paid off; Martin made a three and did a great job on Tatum defensively. The bench guard army of Victor Oladipo, Gabe Vincent, and Martin has been pretty good. We’ll see how much time Duncan Robinson gets; he played five minutes in Game 6. Whether he’s making shots or not, he’s instant offense.
— Butler was a defensive menace in Game 6. He had four steals and they were all interceptions, which turn into transition offense.
— Tatum and Jaylen Brown each played well in Game 6, but in the second half, they combined to shoot 3-7 from the field. It’s unacceptable for those two to be so invisible late in the game. The Heat did a great job of sending well-timed doubles to Tatum, leaving weaker shooters Horford and Derrick White open. Butler guarded Brown excellently for most of the game.
— As ever, turnovers is the number one problem for the Celtics. Tatum had seven in Game 6 and Brown had four. It’s the double teams that caused Tatum problems, especially in the fourth quarter. Watch Butler tip a pass as the Heat trap Tatum instead of conceding a mismatch:
This approach, of sending two to the ball, risks letting Grant Williams catch the ball with space and a numbers advantage. But Horford and White are two of the other Celtics players on the court, and they’re not being guarded from three.
The Heat showed a lot of bodies to Tatum, making it tough to get to the hoop. This is what he saw at one point in the fourth quarter as attacked Max Strus on a switch:
That’s a lot of guys in the paint. This approach is similar to what the Celtics did to slow down Kevin Durant in the first round: they have bodies set up at the elbow, refusing to let Tatum operate comfortably inside the arc. His dribble is always contested, which makes it hard for him to orchestrate or pull up for jumpers. Adebayo, circled, is stopping Tatum from taking a midrange shot, while also harassing his dribble to force him to make a quick decision.
— I think the Celtics are better on both ends with Robert Williams III on the court. He only played 26 minutes in Game 6, though, and wasn’t part of the closing lineup. I’m not sure how much that has to do with his lingering knee injury that has caused him to miss a couple of games in this series.
Williams III provides the Celtics with an important rim protection presence who can also guard on the perimeter. They need to put more guys in front of the rim to take away Butler’s scoring options. On offense, Williams is a lob threat, giving Tatum a passing option in the paint and adding more spice to the Celtics’ pick-and-rolls. If Williams III is healthy enough, I’d like to see the Celtics close with Smart-Brown-Tatum-Horford-Williams — the starters.
White has been great, and hit a couple threes in Game 6, but he is not guarded on the perimeter and will be targeted by Butler due to his size.
— The Heat got back to the base Miami Heat form of offense, which helped them get to the Finals in 2020: they ran various hand-offs for a movement shooter (Strus) to draw the defense, and operated from there. They did the same when Robinson was in the game, and will do it for Herro if he’s able to return. Sets for shooters on the move are always deadly, and will create an advantage somewhere.
— Turnovers are a big variable in this series. Brown has struggled with his handle all series, with the Heat’s defenders (especially Oladipo) swiping him. Tatum, as mentioned, struggled with over-helping and double-teams. The Heat had 17 turnovers of their own in Game 6. Too often, their role players, whose job is to not dribble, committed sloppy turnovers. Strus had four and Martin had three in just 12 minutes. They can’t afford that.
— Which team will get three-pointers from guys who don’t usually make them? In Game 6, Butler randomly made 4 of 8 threes. They got four from Lowry, plus one from Martin and two from PJ Tucker. The Celtics, meanwhile, saw the usually bricky White make 4 of 7. In a few games throughout these playoffs, Horford has caught fire. Game 7s are often decided by unusual shooting bursts.
— Both of these teams have superstars who can win the game for them. Tatum and Butler are made for the moment. This series has featured a lot of blowouts, but I don’t think we’ll see another one of those tonight. I’ve got the Celtics winning a tight one.