A tactical preview of Timberwolves vs. Suns
Timberwolves vs. Suns might be the most intriguing first round matchup.
The Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns are, in a lot of ways, the inverse of each other.
The Wolves are huge and physical, better defensively than anyone else in the NBA. They’re led by an electric young superstar hungry prove his playoff bona fides.
The Suns are the old lions of the NBA, led by three superstar shotmakers and stacked with shooting talent. They have embraced tiny lineups filled with three-point marksmen.
But there’s one big commonality: they both traded their futures for superstars. They’re desperate to win right away. A first round loss would be a big disappointment.
It projects to be a fascinating chess match of a series, with both teams trying to impose their style on the other.
Let’s take a look at a few battles that could dictate how the series goes.
The Suns’ heavy help on Anthony Edwards
Phoenix stacked help defenders in front of Edwards when these teams played on Sunday in the last game of the regular season. That’s not surprising; Phoenix’s primary defender on Edwards was Bradley Beal. Edwards can get downhill on Beal one-on-one.
The Suns’ goal is to force Edwards to give it up early. That means not letting him get into the paint at all — Phoenix would rather help off of the Wolves’ role players and then scramble.
Naturally, this style causes chaos. The Suns will be in rotation a lot. But it puts pressure on perhaps Minnesota’s biggest weakness: collective decision-making and security with the ball.
Edwards will have to pick the defense apart with his passing. The other Wolves will have to make the right choices on whether to shoot or drive, and keep the machine moving. If the ball dies when it leaves Edwards’s hands — erasing any advantage — then the Suns have done their job.
One counter to teams tilting the floor on Edwards is placing Karl-Anthony Towns as the closest player to the ball, daring teams to help off KAT. The Wolves need to take advantage.
This was a problem on Sunday:
Kevin Durant, guarding Towns, is standing at the free throw line, shielding off the paint. Edwards draws Durant toward him, but passes a little bit too late, allowing Durant to get back to Towns. Then it gets sloppy.
Minnesota could have a tendency to lean on these Edwards isos at the top of the key, knowing that the Suns will over-help and open advantages. But they can’t get married to doing the same thing every time. They have to run off-ball actions for Edwards and get him the ball in different spots. They need to activate their other options — especially Towns, who will constantly be attacking size mismatches.
Minnesota’s cavalry of perimeter defenders
Phoenix has three elite shotmakers in Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. Unlike almost every other team in the NBA, the Wolves have very good defenders to wield against all of those guys.
The first question for Minnesota will be figuring out what to do with Jaden McDaniels and Edwards. They used McDaniels on Booker and Edwards on Durant on Sunday — betting that Edwards could deny Durant the ball, and McDaniels could chase Booker over screens, contesting from behind.
But Durant can shoot over Edwards at will, and there’s a case to be made that McDaniels’s length is more valuable on Durant than Booker. They can constantly switch those matchups around, giving the Suns different looks.
The Suns made a point of attacking the third matchup — Mike Conley on Beal. Conley’s great, but he’s the weak link relative to everyone else. The Suns can get Beal going.
Minnesota could always add another elite perimeter defender to the mix, with Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kyle Anderson. If they want to lean defense, they can try to keep three of McDaniels, Edwards, Alexander-Walker, and Anderson on the court at all times — matching up as well as possible with the big three.
Towns guarding Grayson Allen
Towns is fascinating in many different ways in this series. He’s the X-Factor for Minnesota any way you look at it.
Defensively, he’s going to have to guard Allen by default. There’s no other option, unless you want him on Durant — and I don’t think that’s tenable. The Suns have to attack that, and they did on Sunday.
Most often that will mean using Allen as a screen-setter, daring Towns to switch onto one of the stars. Minnesota likes to avoid switching as much as possible, keeping their elite defenders on the ball. Towns prefers to show and recover to his man. Allen can make that difficult:
Allen pops out fast, forcing Towns to sprint. Rudy Gobert tries to scramble, but Allen beats him for speed. That’s Phoenix’s advantage, in a nutshell: they’re faster and more skilled.
The Suns have to remember where Towns is at all times. Allen doesn’t need to handle the ball, but he needs to be involved, forcing Towns to chase him. That can mean on-ball screens, or it can mean setting pindowns for Allen, trying to get him looks from three.
Towns is known for getting himself into foul trouble in the playoffs. He has to avoid that.
The KAT offense
Towns will be crucial on defense, but he’s possibly even more important offensively. Minnesota needs to be able to score to keep up with Phoenix’s shotmaking, and with the Suns loading up on Edwards, Towns has to take advantage.
One way to do that is by posting up. It’s not something Minnesota goes to as much anymore, in part due to spacing, but the Suns will have to send help when Towns is in the post. The Wolves can create dominoes from that, and Towns will have to make the right pass — something that’s always been a challenge for him.
Towns has scored 1.07 points per possession when he attacks out of a post-up, 15th out of 79 qualifying players. But add in the times that he passes out of the post and he drops to 52nd, at 0.99 points per possession. It’s a weakness, and Phoenix knows it.
Put simply, the Wolves need Towns’s secondary scoring, or else they’re going to have little chance of keeping up with the Suns’ offense talent.
The Suns’ offensive execution
Phoenix needs to keep their foot on the pedal offensively. The constant question for them: Are they running an offense, or are they letting the defense off the hook by playing iso-ball or running basic pick-and-rolls?
That will mean spotlighting mismatches and running multi-layered actions.
Here’s one example:
That action is a good way to make life difficult for McDaniels and Gobert. Allen, guarded by Towns, sets the first screen, and McDaniels doesn’t want to switch — hoping to keep Towns away from Booker. But then McDaniels is caught behind the play as another screen comes.
Ideally, when teams set two screens like that, you switch the first one, staying attached to the ball-handler. But you can’t do that when it’s Towns.
We’ll see what else Phoenix will come up with, and how Minnesota adjusts.
Other stuff to watch:
The Suns are going to mix in switches against Gobert. He needs take advantage by sealing smaller guys and hitting the offensive glass.
Naz Reid is an excellent shooter. The Suns have to run him off the line and dare him to post up against switches. Reid is 78th out of 79 NBA players in post-up efficiency.
Who does Frank Vogel trust off the bench? Royce O’Neale and Eric Gordon are the guarantees, and then it gets fuzzy. Backup center Drew Eubanks will get time, and will probably hard-hedge a lot of ball-screens. It will be interesting to see how much trust Vogel has in Bol Bol — an intriguing Durant backup, but a flawed player who will make mistakes.
Josh Okogie hasn’t played rotation minutes in a while. But he profiles as an excellent Edwards defender.
Minnesota has its own rotation questions. One thing I’m curious about: how do they generate offense when Edwards sits at the start of the second and fourth quarters? In the regular season, they liked to run two point guards (Conley, Jordan McLaughlin, or Monte Morris). It could be a tough series for the backup point guards, with no places to hide defensively — though they fight on that end.
Keep an eye on how the Suns manage staggering the three stars. Often, Vogel has paired Durant and Booker, and let Beal operate as the lone star for a few minutes each game. The Wolves can respond to that by throwing Alexander-Walker or McDaniels on Beal during those minutes.
Edwards is ready for the moment. He’s young, but he’s always shown up in big games. Can’t wait to see him on this stage again.
With that said, I have questions about how the Wolves attack a switching defense. I’ve got Suns in 6.